GOOD PICK OR NOT
SO GOOD OF A PICK
(A Mediocre
70 League Preview)
Everyone it is time to fess
up to the truth on how you went about selecting your team for this league.
I mean we all have different ways of selecting the teams we choose to
coach. Heck some coaches don’t even know that they are in the
league and was surprised when they got that notice that said “Mark
Miller you are on the clock”. When Mark seen that I am sure he was
thinking “What in the world are you talking about” being as though
that he said he didn’t even know he was in this league. Now
what makes Mark even more dangerous is that he got the Purple People
Eaters in the Vikings. You put Marks coaching talents and the
Vikings together and you better bring you’re chess game with you because
he is one of the best at that. By the way Mark, just damn you
for taking the team I wanted. J
Then there was Greg Marcucci
and when his choice came up his friends quipped “The democrats will
have chosen its representative by the time he picks”. What that
meant I have no idea as I don’t know Greg but evidently when it’s
his time for him to pick a team a man has plenty of time to maybe go
out to eat, a movie, and visit the local Wal-Mart store and still get
back in plenty of time to take a nap before getting his pick.
Of course there are others
like Bill Keller and myself who always run simulations using SAT to
get a feel for what team seems to fare better than others. It’s
not rocket scientist technology, but hey what better ways to select
a team for SAT than letting SAT play the games. Now I don’t
really know how much of simulations Bill runs, but I usually do a 10
season simulation to get a average. I eliminated any Packer team
after the combined simulation with every team playing each other once.
I am a Packer through and through but to use the word “mediocre”
with any Packer team in that time span is just funny.
Now some owners can make a
pot of gold out of any team they choose. Stu Geller is one of
those coaches that he could take the 76 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and scare
the daylights out of you. Stu is as wise as any old owl and sneakier
than a cat approaching a bird. Stu and I have played many games,
and I thought at one time the only way I was going to beat him would
be to send him a check to take a fall against me.( Stu it would have
bounced) Stu after winning the Bad 70’s championship will have
his work cut out for him this season but you can bet that Stu will win
more than he will lose even with those San Diego Chargers who in the
simulations only won 2.7 games on average. So pencil Stu and his
Chargers in for no less than 4 wins, and more than likely 5.
Then there is the Professor
and creator of this great game Wayne Poniewaz. Wayne will keep
you on your toes and like Stu is a very crafty play caller. Even
though his Browns only averaged 3.0 wins in the 10 simulations, like
Stu you can add another game or two to his win column by the time the
season is done. Sometimes I think there is a “WP” factor built
into the game that Wayne has never told us about. It seems to
always kick in when he trails late and somehow seems to get that game
winning roll. J
This league is full of very
good SAT coaches and will be very challenging to say the least.
Wayne, Mark, Marc Weiss, Ed, and Stu just to mention a few I know have
either won or finished as the runner-up in past SAT online tournaments
or leagues. I know there are some from the old Action community
that can also make that claim which makes this league even tougher.
The final outcome of the divisions will all depend on the coaches making
the best use of their team’s talents. Some of these teams are
running teams, some passing and a few that are balanced. Most
of these games will come down to those crucial moments of the decisions
we all make.
In the 10 simulation seasons
I did (someone else would likely get a different outcome) I found it
interesting that it seems that two teams from each conference stand
out above the others. It was simulated using a 7 game schedule
without the extra positioning week in it. For each league here
is the breakdown by divisions and the 10 simulation results.
| Capital | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TOTAL | AVG |
| Minnesota | 4 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 4.2 |
| Atlanta | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 39 | 3.9 |
| LA Rams | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 3.2 |
| Detroit | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 3.0 |
Bold indicates was divisional
leader. Only Detroit did not ever win the division. These simulations was done using the actual league schedule and file settings.
| Century | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TOTAL | AVG |
| NY Giants | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 3.5 |
| Washington | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 3.5 |
| Dallas | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Philadelphia | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 2.6 |
In looking at the NFC divisions
it would look as if Minnesota, Atlanta, NY Giants, and Washington would
be the odds on favorites to win the title. The overall favorite
would appear to be Mark Miller and his Vikings. As you can see
though, the simulations had many various outcomes. No team was
immune from 1 win seasons in these simulations.
| Central | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TOTAL | AVG |
| Kansas City | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 4.1 |
| N. England | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 3.2 |
| Denver | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 3.2 |
| San Diego | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 2.0 |
The AFC seems to have 3 very
strong teams that were very good in all 10 simulations for the most
part. San Diego struggled in all but 3 of the simulations.
So it would look as if Cincinnati, NY Jets, Kansas City and New England
will be the teams to beat in this conference. Remember these are
simulations and do not take into account the coaches who are guiding
these teams which brings in the “What if” factor in play calling.
In the end you can use these
numbers to gauge your team’s ability against the others. What
you can’t gauge though is what kind of difference the human coach
will make towards his team. For the most part many of us has coached
against one another and know very well that as in real life, the coaching
in SAT can make a huge impact on the game outcome. We know that
a great coach can drastically change a projected 2 or 3 win team into
a 4 or even better team by his play calling alone.
Good luck to all the coaches.
